Friday, May 4, 2007

 FiNTAG:

 FiNTAG: Hedge Fund Daily News, Views, Opinions and Gossip | Archives | 2007/05/04 |
 
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 HEDGE FUND NEWS

 @ Fri 04 May 2007 : GMT
 FINTAG COMMENT

 While the people of Britain abandon its shores for a long May Bank Holiday, they are leaving behind tales of debt, debt and more debt. Gone are the days of denial, with the assumption that asset prices will continue to rise and so more debt can be taken out to service ever increasing debt payments. For although we know the young to be reckless and foolish, it looks like the over 55's are even worse.



 Let us not forget that it is individuals who run companies and a debt ridden person will instinctively operate their companies in the same way - recklessly.



 Magazines are for losers, the Fed raps Hedgies, LTCM rears its ugly head again, sub prime debt is the reason UBS made a mess on the carpet, BarclaysAmro tell us to get out of US equities quick, managed accounts continue to grow, sub prime debt hits GM, analysts get it wrong again and being old is bad for your bank manager.



Canada to launch alternative trading system (financialnews-us)  (Related) 



Banker on insider trading charges (bbc)  (Related) 



Why ABN drama could be curtain-raiser for Pru (telegraph)  (Related) 



 HELLOGOODBYE

Portfolio As An "Already Over" Indicator (dealbreaker)  (Related) 

 We used to do some work for a private equity guy who refused to even glance at newspapers or business magazines. His thought was that people who read newspapers were to caught up in the present, and should probably start reading magazines. And he said that people reading magazines should given them up for books.



 “Worse than the news. By the time it's in a magazine, it's old news,” he'd say. “There's nothing useful to be learned from them.”



 But that isn't true.



 A trio of finance professors have demonstrated that at business magazines are good at indicating the end of a period of abnormal performance. Basically, if a magazine is writing about it, it's already old news. And that is useful to know.



 The study focused on the covers of BusinessWeek, Fortune and Forbes. But they're old news themselves. We decided to apply the measurement to Portfolio. Glancing at the cover at Portfolio one sees that the magazine cover has, well, nothing. No words except it's title, subtitle, title, date, and website. And it has a picture of Manhattan rooftops.



 So is the message that nothing is over? The Portfolio is over? The Conde Nast is done? New York City is through? “Business Intelligence” is no longer businesslike or intelligent?



 Then we remembered that we torn off a cover-flap. It's stuck between the pages of an biography of Hilaire Beloc that we've been reading. Maybe that's where the secrets to what is already over are hiding.



 Fintag says

 Absolutely. I cannot imagine copies of Portfolio being found in Dentist waiting rooms.


 BAD BOY

New York Fed Warns On Hedge Funds (dealbook)  (Related) 

  In what Reuters describes as its “sternest warning to date” on the state of the hedge-fund business, the New York Federal Reserve said Wednesday that the funds could represent the biggest risk for a financial crisis since 1998, when the implosion of Long-Term Capital Management threatened global markets.



 “Recent high correlations among hedge fund returns could suggest concentrations of risk comparable to those preceding the hedge fund crisis of 1998,” according to a paper written by Tobias Adrian, capital markets economist at the central bank.



 Regulation — or lack thereof — of the $1.4 trillion industry has become a battle ground for regulators and lawmakers. The meltdown of Long-Term Capital is often cited as a cautionary tale by those arguing for more oversight of the lightly-regulated investment pools. The crisis at Long-Term Capital took the market by surprise and resulted in The Fed forcing an unprecedented $3.6 billion bailout.



 The Fed's latest worry arose from what it described as a rising correlation between the actual returns of hedge funds, which could point to similar trading strategies that excessively concentrate risk on too few market positions.



 “Similar trading strategies can heighten risk when funds have to close out comparable positions in response to a common shock,” Mr. Adrian wrote



 However, MarketWatch notes that the New York Fed report also saw a big difference between 1998 and now. Today, the increased correlation of hedge fund returns has been driven by an overall decline in the volatility of returns in financial markets. Nine years ago, the increase occurred independently of the overall market.



 Fintag says



Hedge funds may pose huge market risk: Fed (cnn)  (Related) 



Hedge fund study suggests parallels with LTCM crisis (marketwatch)  (Related) 



 Did I ever mention I was caught up in the LTCM debacle in the late 1990's? I could write a book on it - the days of complete arrogance, banks lending to them without sufficient collateral security (including mine), and the fastest implosion you could ever imagine. Mind you I was also involved in the Barings blowup too (working in Hong Kong at the time trading equity derivatives) and also lost lots of money and credibility after the dot com crash - hence my apathy for research analysts. Whenever things look like they are going well, just remember it will not last. Either that or I attract disaster and destruction. I am like one of those drivers that sees many accidents in the rear mirror but has never had an accident.


 U BEEN SHAFTED

Sub-prime woes hit UBS hedge fund (guardian)  (Related) 

 The Swiss bank UBS has thrown in the towel on a high-profile attempt to run an in-house Wall Street hedge fund after suffering big losses betting on America's controversial sub-prime mortgage industry.



 In an embarrassing admission of defeat, UBS announced yesterday that it was shutting Dillon Read Capital Management, a fund established two years ago by the bank's former head of investment banking, John Costas, with an investment of between $3bn and $3.5bn.



 The venture ran up losses of 150m Swiss francs (£62m) during the first quarter, contributing to a 7% drop in the bank's overall profits to SFr3.27bn. Its failure emerged only a day after New York's Federal Reserve warned of the growing risks posed by hedge funds.



 UBS's chief executive, Peter Wuffli, said the venture "did not meet our expectations". Dillon Read's assets will be transferred into UBS's main asset management business. Although UBS gave few details of the hedge fund's activities, it revealed that it had run into trouble because of difficult conditions in the US mortgage securities market.



 Home lenders began admitting at the end of last year that they were facing huge liabilities because less affluent borrowers were struggling to keep up repayments on high-risk loans. Critics say the crisis is a direct result of years of reckless, predatory lending by American financial services companies. One watchdog, the Centre for Responsible Lending, has predicted that 2.2m loans could end in foreclosure - a fifth of all sub-prime loans over the last two years.



 UBS's hedge fund is among the highest profile victims of the crisis to date. It comes hot on the heels of the collapse last month of New Century Financial, a US firm which provided $60bn of loans last year. In February, HSBC warned it had a major exposure to bad debts in the sub-prime lending arena.



 Banking experts said Dillon Read's closure was unexpected. Florian Esterer, a fund manager at Swisscanto Asset Management, told the Bloomberg news service that it was an "unbelievable mis-step", adding: "Once UBS agrees on a strategy they normally stick to it. There must have been huge problems."



 A Bear Stearns analyst, Christopher Wheeler, wrote: "The business has clearly been a major error of judgment."



 The establishment of Dillon Read in June 2005 attracted much attention on Wall Street, where there was surprise that the chief executive of a big UBS division had chosen to step down to manage a small team of hedge fund managers. Mr Costas then described the venture as "a chance to be the number one alternative asset management company in the world".



 Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded UBS and warned that the closure of Dillon Read could cause disruption and distraction. UBS has said it will spend $300m on "re-integration", including recalling staff who were seconded to the hedge fund.



 Fintag says

 Sub prime news was big last month - but of course the knock effects can last for years. Expect more problems in the coming months.



Sub-prime woes hit UBS hedge fund (ftalphaville)  (Related) 



US hedge fund operator wins New Century's loans (ftalphaville)  (Related) 



Sub-prime mortgage crisis hits GM (bbc)  (Related) 


 GOODBYE USA

US equities will underperform for years, says Barclays Capital (financialnews-us)  (Related) 

 US equities will underperform for years, according to research published by Tim Bond, global head of asset allocation at Barclays Capital.



 Bond points out that US earnings per share have only risen by 164% since 2000, against a rise of 200% in the eurozone, 184% in Asia, 238% in Germany and 267% in Japan. European exports to developing nations has risen by 322% in the same period, against 183% from the US.



 He said: "The past few years have witnessed a much weaker relative performance from the US than was the case in the decade from 1990." A 20% depreciation in the dollar from 2000 has failed to help the US.



 According to Bond restructuring in European and Japanese economies have led to a relative improvement in their trading position and returns on equity. They are closing the productivity gap which opened up in the 1990s. "From a unit cost perspective there is no obvious threat to European profit margins, whereas it is very difficult to make a bullish case for US margins."



 US earnings growth is weak: "At least half the European growth level." He is unimpressed with earnings growth in the US of 8.5% in the first quarter, given the trading edge which results in weakness in the dollar and the fact that US corporations frequently have large overseas operations.



 "The balance of probability remains for European profits - and probably GDP - to outperform the US for several more years." Bond also points out that US capital investment is slowing, in favour of share buy-backs. "The message would appear to be that US managements are bearish on local returns on capital. They have an unhealthy focus on near-term earnings per share growth targets."



 "If Europe was an economic Greece to the US Rome in the last decade, it looks more like a 5th century Constantinople to the US Rome today."



 Fintag says

 And yet so many analysts tell me the US is undervalued? Maybe its the Boots syndrome where none of the analysts realised how badly it was undervalued (and yet KKR bought it out at a much higher price) because they are useless at their jobs. We can blame the dot-com exuberance for that.



 Let's face it most analysts haven't got a clue.



Stamp duty on shares 'is suppressing valuations' (telegraph)  (Related) 


 OAP RISK

Insolvency risk high for over-55s (bbc)  (Related) 

 People over the age of 55 are having the most difficulty dealing with their debts, a survey from insolvency firm Thomas Charles suggests.



 Nearly a quarter of over-55s with debt over £10,000 said that they are "quite likely" or "certain" to go insolvent.



 This is compared to the one in 10 of 18 to 24-year-olds, with more than £10,000 debt, who say they will be insolvent.



 On Friday, the government will reveal how many people went insolvent during the first three months of 2007.



 The survey's findings, that older people are struggling more with debt than younger people, echo earlier research from the Consumer Credit Counselling Services (CCCS).



 The CCCS, a debt charity, said there had been a rise in the number of elderly people asking for help, with men over 60 owing the most.



 HOW TO GO INSOLVENT

 Bankruptcy: the traditional way of escaping overwhelming debt. Ends after one year, but you are likely to lose all your assets including your house to pay something to the creditors

 IVA: A deal between you and your creditors, overseen by an insolvency practitioner. Less stigma, less chance of losing your home, but involves paying some of your debts in one go or over a number of years



 Q&A: Personal insolvencies



 Insolvency rise



 Over the past two years the number of people going insolvent has risen sharply.



 There are two types of insolvency; bankruptcy and individual voluntary arrangements (IVAs).



 The number of people going bankrupt has steadily increased but this rise has been dwarfed by growth in IVAs.



 But debt analysts suggest that the rate of increase in insolvency, which will be revealed on Friday, is slowing.



 "The official insolvency figures should be fairly flat," Pat Boyden, an insolvency specialist at PricewaterhouseCoopers, said.



 "This is because some creditors are taking a hard line over IVAs and rejecting them.



 "As for insolvency as a whole, borrowing on credit cards and loans has been fairly flat over the past year. Borrow



 Fintag says

 And these are the people who got burned in the late 1980's. Don't we ever learn? As expected, when my parents pop off I expect their estate to have a negative value and the largest creditor will be a nose picking Scotsman called Brown (assuming they depart this merry debt fest world in the next week of course in which case Mr Miliband maybe the new chancellor)


 MA BAKER

How to service managed account platforms (hedgeweek)  (Related) 

 nvesting in hedge funds through managed accounts reduces operational risk and the risk of fraud or manipulation, which are behind over 50 % of hedge fund failures. Managed accounts create an interface between hedge fund and investor. A managed account is an investment fund controlled by the platform, which gives a hedge fund manager a mandate to replicate the performance of one of its hedge funds.



 The fund manager's goal is to replicate the performance of the benchmark fund using the investment strategy and style for which it has been selected after a full and detailed due diligence process.



 The platform monitors risk on a daily basis and ensures that the manager applies the selected strategy in compliance with the pre-set invest-ment rules and risk limits. The other advantage of managed accounts platforms is that they provide investors with liquidity, usually weekly, by allowing purchases and redemptions to be made within the week with no notice or for a very short investment period.



 The due diligence process used to analyze and assess a fund management company's overall processes is long and costly and heavy investment in information technology is critical for strict risk monitoring. For it to be attractive and profitable, a platform must therefore be able to propose a diversified range of strategies preferably using several first-class names in the alternative investment world.



 Independent valuation: As with classic investment funds, CACEIS is responsible for calculating official net asset values. For managed accounts in particular, the fund manager's positions have to be independently valued using a specific procedure geared to each type of instrument. CACEIS has a team of experts dedicated to valuing the most complex instruments. This service strengthens its ability to provide independent valuations of all kinds of instruments.



 Middle office outsourcing: A platform may also decide to outsource certain middle office activities using the resources and expertise provided by CACEIS.



 Thanks to the systems now linking CACEIS with the main prime brokers and the specific links created with fund managers and other intermediaries, particularly OTC counterparties, CACEIS can now provide a fully transparent and secure platform while facilitating risk monitoring by reporting daily on the transactions and positions taken by the various fund managers.



 Fintag says

 Managed accounts are the next big thing. Morgan Stanley, BNP, Partners, SocGen, ML, and rumours are Goldman and JP Morgan are to launch platforms too. Shows how the Hedge Fund industry is turning into the Mutual Funds industry - except we make money for our investors.



National Bank of Canada and BNP Paribas join forces to offer hedge fund managed accounts (hedgeweek)  (Related) 







  
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